Friday, 14 November 2014

Mr & Mrs Khanna: The latest blockbuster on D-street tracked by market watchers - Interesting read from todays ET

Mr & Mrs Khanna: The latest blockbuster on D-street tracked by market watchers

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ET Intelligence Group: Every bull market produces stars — those who churn one multi-bagger after another. One such name which is being closely tracked by avid market watchers, and participants these days, is Dolly Khanna.

With stakes of more than 1% in 14 listed companies, Khanna's shareholdings are worth at least a few hundred crores. Most of these stocks — mainly small-caps — have multiplied several times, earning her a devoted fan following on Dalal Street in recent years. But, there is one thing that flummoxes them: they don't know who Dolly Khanna is.

That is strange because such impressive stock pickings usually spark frenzied hero worship, especially among those who prefer to piggyback rather than identify their own winners to make big money.

The only time her name pops up is when she buys more than 1% or more in a company. No one knows how she looks though traders' blogs have some versions of her identity. But, those market watchers who insist on knowing more about the thoughts behind picking the stock winners, could benefit better by talking to her husband, Rajiv. The low-profile investor revealed to ET that Dolly Khanna is a homemaker and that he manages her investments. 

For Chennai-based Khanna, stock investing is more of a hobby than a profession. The Khannas own Kwality Milk Foods, which sold its ice-cream business to Hindustan Unilever in 1995. With the money he got after selling the ice cream business, Rajiv Khanna, 67, started investing in the market in 1996-97 for the first time.

"It started as a hobby and remains a hobby. My core business is of milk products," said the lowprofile investor, who agreed to talk to ET over phone after weeks of persuasion. He did not respond to requests seeking an interview in person. Hawkins Cookers was his first multi-bagger. Khanna started accumulating the stock in 2007 and went on accumulating it till June 2009 at an average price of 130-140. Today, the stock is trading at Rs 3,400, and the company has given at least 70% of its profits as dividends. 
Then, there was nothing stopping Khanna. He went on to identify small-cap winners such as Wimplast (more than 7 times in two years), Cera Sanitaryware (more than 7 times in two years ), RS Software (4 times in less than two years), and Avanti Feeds (more than 4 times in less than 6 months). Khanna's passion for picking stocks through extensive research can be traced back to his first job. A chemical engineer from IIT Madras, Khanna worked for ICI Ltd, a pharmaceutical company as a research person in the field of industrial explosives and blasting physics. In 1986, he started his company - Kwality Milk Foods. In the first decade of his investing career, gains from the market were modest. It was only after 2007 that the stakes started becoming bigger. 

Mr & Mrs Khanna: The latest blockbuster on D-street tracked by market watchers


Dolly Khanna's portfolio (companies in which she holds more than 1%) has grown from Rs 1 crore in 2007 to Rs 175 crore at present. She also holds shares in several other companies but that does not appear in the shareholding of those companies. "We also have holdings in larger companies but we can't buy more than 1% of them," he said. 

Khanna's latest bets (bought in the last one year) include Premier Explosives, Mold-tek Packaging and Nilkamal. These stocks have at gained significantly from the time of the purchase. He declined to talk in detail about his investments. But, when asked about Nilkamal, a plastic product company and the only stock in which he increased his holding in the September quarter, Khanna said "Crude has started correcting. Let's see what happens." " He claims he does not talk to company managements before buying a stock. "We purely rely on the public information and act on it.

ET spoke to top officials of three companies, including Liberty Shoes, Manjushree Technopak and Nilkamal, in which Khanna's holding is more than 1%. 

The officials said they have not heard of Dolly Khanna. While the name is well-known on Dalal Street, few in the market know about Rajiv Khanna. "Although I have never got to meet them, I've been hearing of them. They have been able to identify good companies at a very early stage and have made good money through investments," said a Chennai based fund manager. 

When asked about the investment strategy, Khanna said, "It all depends on the underlying market condition. Like in tennis you play different games on different courts — hard court, clay court and lawn, we also study the market situation and pick our stocks accordingly. It can be either a value stock, growth stock, momentum stock or buying based on technicals." He feels market is the most complex puzzle, "It's not the money, it's the challenge what is exciting. Money is just the outcome. And once you start to understand the game, making money is not difficult," he said.

Thursday, 13 November 2014

Dynacon Systems and Solutions - Result update

Good set of nos. from Dyancon in Q2 FY 15. Increase in both topline and bottomline on QoQ and YoY. Buy more.

Rs Crs
Q2 FY 15
Q2 FY 14
Q1 FY 15
YoY
QoQ
Net Sales
29.4800
19.2700
22.5900
52.98%
30.50%
PAT
0.2459
0.1651
0.1637
48.94%
50.21%
Book Value / Share




28.08

Tuesday, 11 November 2014

Dynacon Systems and Solutions - Buy


Business Model:

Dynacon Systems and Solutions is an end to end IT Infrastructure solutions provider. The Company undertakes all activities related to IT infrastructure including infrastructure design and consulting services, turnkey systems integration of large network and data centre infrastructures including supply of associated equipment and software; on-site and remote facilities management of multi- location infrastructure of domestic clients. Its Enterprise Services offerings include a wide spectrum of Enterprise IT and Office Automation Services including Infrastructure Managed Services, Breakfix Services, Managed Print Services, Cloud Computing, Systems Integration Services, and Applications.

The key verticals driving growth for the company are - BFSI, Education, and the Government sector. Company has recently entered into several new strategic partnerships with Global IT Companies like Oracle, Aruba, Riverbed. Company has added several key customers in these segments towards managing their IT Infrastructure and Networking for their offices and branches. Dynacons has bagged the Managed Services order for Maharashtra Co-op Bank for managing their Data Centre and Disaster Recovery Centre for a period of 3 years.It has also undertaken several solution deployments such as Reserve Bank of India, State Bank of India, Central Bank, Bank of India, CGGVeritas, Breach Candy Hospital, etc. Company received recognition as the Emerging IT Infrastructure Services Company by CIO Choice. Link to various customers of the company is here.

The System Integration (SI) segment is the main contributor to the revenue growth for the company. Dynacon has also collaborated with large System Integrators for working together on large projects. In FY 14 , it won projects with Tata Consultancy Services and Atos.




The adoption of Social media, Mobile, Analytics and Cloud (SMAC) technologies is expected to drive growth in all the segments. Cloud and client maturity are the major drivers for this, especially in IT. Dynacons is adapting this technology for upgrading its existing solutions as part of its offerings.
Expected opening up of  infrastructure sectors like roads, airports and sea ports, national e-Governance initiatives and implementation of Mission projects, is going to drive an increase in IT spend. This presents unprecedented opportunity for growth for the company.

Company derives more than 15% of its revenue from Storage space, which has grown at a pace of 25% YOY for last 3 – 5 years. Company has adopted revolutionary Software Defined Strorage (SDS) in the enterprise technology space. This is an upcoming technology in this segment and article on company’s promoters this was printed on the cover page of Channel World Magazine September 2014. Link here

SDS Technology provides the following benefits over the traditional data storage method:

Flexibility—Hardware-defined storage solutions are rigid, proprietary systems that lock you into specific vendors and protocols. By contrast,software-defined storage tends to be based on open systems that are much more adaptable to changing needs and that allow you to mix and match storage layers for optimal cost effectiveness.

Scalability—Software-defined solutions provide immediacy and relatively limitless scalability. To scale a hardware-based system requires the time and money and floor space of buying—installing—configuring the hardware. To scale a software-defined system, on the other hand, requires just a couple of software commands.

Economy—When considering the real cost of ownership (RCO), software-defined storage reduces the cost of buying new gear, the cost of operating the equipment, and even the cost of disposal fees. Taken together, the cumulative effect of all these cost reductions can generate savings as large as 70% or more.

Resource leveragability—With the operational simplicity of software-defined storage, businesses don’t have to maintain engineering overhead to develop separate solutions for different hardware and media, thereby allowing IT departments to focus more resources on strategic business issues.

Source:

I feel that with supernormal explosion in data these days and to save every bit of it would compel organizations to go for SDS technology and will benefit Dynacon going forward.

A snapshot of various parameters considered for arriving at a buying decision.


Rs Crs
2011
2012
2013
2014
Q1 FY 15
Q2 FY 15
Remarks
Net Sales
42.33
52.2
58.7
77.65
22.6

Growing Topline
Net Profit
0.77
1.03
0.52
0.58
0.16

NPM should improve going forward
Market Cap



5.62



Market Cap / Sales



0.07


Market cap of around 7% of sales.
Book Value



27.66



Current Price



9.48



CMP / Book Value



0.34


Trading at 34% of its book value.
Promoter Holding
29.67%
29.67%
29.67%
30.09%
31.09%
31.49%
Increasing gradually.


Please have your own due diligence before buying.

I am invested in this stock.

Happy Investing!





Saturday, 8 November 2014

Daikafill Chemicals - Results Update

Daikafill Chemicals – Result Update.

Company’s net sales and profit both has increased on quarterly and yearly basis, recommending to hold.



Rs Crs
Q2 FY 15
Q1 FY 15
Q2 FY 14
YoY Increase
QoQ Increase
Net Sales
9.87
9.27
8.84
11.65%
6.47%
Profit
0.6687
0.4865
0.5111
30.84%
37.45%

Friday, 7 November 2014

Shetron - Result update



Consolidated sales increases from Rs 34 Crs to Rs 42 Crs for Q2 Sep on YoY basis. A growth of more than 24%. Similarly, profit of Rs 42 lakhs in Q2 FY 15 as compared to loss of Rs 26 lakhs in Q2 FY 14 (even after Rs 38 Lakhs of other income in Q2 FY 14).



Good part is that company has been able to bring down the long term debt from Rs ~ 74 Crs to Rs 68 Crs from March 2014 to Sep 2014. Company’s only concern is the huge debt on its books and if this trend is any indication, good days are ahead. Company already has good operating margins of ~16%, PAT margin is suffering only because of high interest cost. If sales were to remain stagnant in worst case, even then with debt coming down, company’s value will automatically increase. So, everything here is right for the company be it product demand, company’s vintage, quality of customers, market share except for huge debt, which will come down over a period of time. I feel its worth staying invested here. 

Recommending to hold.

Kellton Tech - 100% return in less than 3 months

Kellton Tech recommended to buy at Rs 13.29 on 24 August 2014 hits lifetime high of Rs 26.75. This is a emerging web/mobile/ ERP / cloud story. Please hold.

Prima Plastics - 100% return in less than 2.5 months

Prima plastics recommended on 25th August at Rs 22.60 hits a life time high of Rs 45.95 with more than 100% return in 2.5 months. Crude prices softening would be a positive for this industry. Please continue to hold.

Sunday, 26 October 2014

Monday, 13 October 2014

Buy Shetron Ltd.

The Indian Packaging Industry is growing at more than 15% per annum. India stands at the 11th position in the world packaging industry and with the rising consumer demand and new technologies, it is expected to grow at 18-20 per cent and it is expected that annual turnover of Indian packaging industry will touch $32 billion by 2025. At the expected growth pace Indian Packaging Industry will soon climb up to the 4th position in the world packaging industry. There will be ten times increase of middle class population by 2025 in India which will further trigger the consumption of packaging material and thus, the packaging industry will grow further.

With packaging industry sector being the flavor of the season, let us look at Shetron Ltd.

Shetron Ltd. was incorporated in 1980 and is engaged in manufacturing of Metal Packaging, Printed Metal Sheets and Dry-cell Battery Jackets and ComponentsCompany caters to Food and Beverage sector through products like Metal Cans, Can Ends, Laminated Composite Cans, General Purpose Cans, Lug Caps.

The packaged food industry is still in nascent phase in India and there is going to be a huge growth in the future in line with the western world.  Just go to any hyper market and one would definitely  see imported packaged foods from US / Europe / Middle East. The demand for such products is going to increase in future.

In Industrial sector it supplies, paper core, micro finish tubes and Fiber drums for bulk packaging. The Company is also the largest integrated Producer of Dry Cell Battery Jackets in the South East Asian region and Europe. It enjoys a market share of around 80% in the domestic dry cell battery jacket / components.  The company supplies dry cell battery jackets to Panasonic, Duracell, Energizer Battery, Budget Battery etc.

Company supplies Fiber Foil through Fibre Foils Technology Ltd. and manufactures Composite Cans, Fibre Drums, Paper Cores, Tubes, Film Cores and Paper Sleeves. It caters to Food Industry, Pharmaceutical Industry, Pesticide Industry, Consumer Goods Industry and Metal & Engineering.

Company’s subsidiary Sansha System Limited is involved in the Design and manufacturing of Press Tools And Sheet Metal Components, and Precession Spare Parts for the Battery and General Engineering Industries. It caters to companies like HP, Godrej, Eveready, IFB, Siemens, Maruti, Hero Honda, TVS Motor Company, BEML, ISRO etc.

Company’s has almost 44% raw material through imports which is primarily tin plate and rupee depreciation also impacted the company however it also benefitted from 30% exports. Company was facing problem on account of slowdown in economy, stretched working capital cycle and high debt. Company had issues servicing its debt due to which its fitch downgraded its rating to “D”. Link here 

Things however started turning for good with increase in its topline and financials which is also demonstrated by upgrade in fitch ratings to “BB-“ Link here  in 2013.

Now lets look at the improving financial position of the company. Company's sales are consistently increasing and PAT is gradually increasing as compared to FY 11.


              






The only concern which I see is the high debt which I  feel would be mitigated by the consistently increasing topline. Company’s operating margin are good at 17% however interest cost impacting the PAT margin. As company grows and debt reduces yoy, things will improve further.

Recommending to buy at cmp for decent upside backed by overall increase in demand in this sector, established business model, improving financials,  presence of funds like JP Morgan Special Situations (Mauritius) Ltd and India Max Investment Fund Ltd. I feel it can be a turnaround story.

Also it is trading at a discount to book value of Rs 44 and available at a market cap of Rs 20 Crs as against sales of Rs 130 Crs.



Disc: I am invested in this company.

Thursday, 11 September 2014

Buy Panchsheel Organics at cmp of 31.35


Panchsheel Organics was started in 1990 by Turakhia Brothers and deals in  globally sourced, as well as indigenously manufactured, best-in-their-class life-saving medicines covering APIs, Intermediates, Specialty Chemicals, Hormones, Steroids etc. Its products complies  with complies to all the norms applicable as per Schedule ‘M’, GMP & WHO standards.

Companies clientele are names like Dr Reddy’s Labs, Ipca Labs, Nicolas Piramal, Macleods, Lintas etc. Company’s product include familiar names like Levocetrizine, protomax, Coldarex, Gripe water etc among hell lot of products. Just browse through Products on company’s website. I am sure one would be able to identify many familiar names.

·         Company’s topline has been consistently increasing over the Years.

·         At the end of June 2014, company networth comes to be Rs 16.47 Crs and book value comes to around Rs 32.83. Further a company with sales Rs 40 Crs is available at a market cap of Rs 16 Crs!.

·         At an EPS of Rs 3.51 for FY 14, the current PE comes out to be less than 9, which is very low compared to the industry average.

·         What caught my attention is the fact that promoters have been consistently increasing the stake. In the month of August, promoters have further acquired 3.53% shares thereby taking total holding to close to 67%. This is a big comfort for the investors.

·         As on 30th June 2014, there are only 1395 individuals holdings shares under public shareholding which would have further come down post above.




·       Company declared the dividend for the first time in past few years which is a big positive for the  investors. 5% dividend has been declared today for FY 14.

·       There is hardly any long term debt on the book as on March 2014.

Basis the strong product portfolio, vintage, customer profile, aggressive promoter stake increase  and low floating stock, recommending to buy.

Monday, 8 September 2014

Buy Aro Granite Industries Limited

Buy Aro Granite Industries Limited at cmp of Rs 57.05

There has been a lot of investors interest in Granite Industry and stocks from this industry are scalog new heights on the back of anticipated demand in future. The demand is expected to come from revival in domestic housing and infra sector as well as from overseas emerging markets and improvement in US economy.

India is blessed with unique colours and large deposits of granite and is among the best for granites so far as colour, variety, quality and pricing are concerned.  Let us look at one such company from this sector which is into 100% exports.
Aro Granite Industries Ltd (Aro) is 100% Export Oriented Unit (EOU) promoted by Mr Sunil Arora and is engaged in the processing of granite tiles and slabs. Aro has two processing facilities at Hosur and Krishnagiri in Tamil Nadu  and has  an aggregate installed capacity of 5.4 Lakh sq m per annum for granite tiles and 5.9 Lakh sq m per annum for granite slabs. Aro mainly exports its products to USA, Europe, Africa and other Asian countries. For FY 14, there was a 33% increase in the sales to North America, 314% increase in sales to Libya, 50% increase in Germany and double the sales in Poland, Italy and Japan.

The major challenge to the company comes from shortage of quality raw material in the domestic market resulting in an increased dependence on imported raw material resulting in less margin. The problem is compounded from with depreciation in rupee. Though company’s imports are naturally hedged to some extent. However company incurred forex loss of Rs 4.21 crs in FY 14 on account of working capital borrowings in foreign currency which was left unhedged.

However the company looks to be a great buy opportunity at current market price basis:

1. The entire sector is getting rerated due to anticipated demand in future. Company’s sales has been consistently increasing sales over the past 5 years and has shown huge growth in export market. Operating margins for Q1 FY 15 has increased both QOQ and YOY. Company will also benefit from stable INR and increase in the capacity in the past.








2. A company with sales of Rs 251 Crs and Pat of Rs 21 Crs in FY 14 is available at a market cap of just Rs 87 Crs.


3. Company’s book value as on 30 June 2014 is Rs 96.15 as against cmp of Rs 57. Low PE of 5 as compared to industry average of 15.

4. Consistently dividend paying and infact gave 1:2 bonus shares in FY 13.

Buy for long term at cmp of Rs 57.05.